IS THE US DOLLAR THE GLOBAL SAFE-HAVEN? – May 4, 2022
Global investors continue to pile into the US Dollar making it the primary safe-haven trade. This may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear.
The following chart by Finviz shows the percentage the USD has appreciated against all the major global currencies during the past month:
In the current market environment, it’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as necessary. Successful traders manage risk by utilizing stop-loss orders, rebalancing existing positions, reducing portfolio holdings, liquidating investments, and moving into cash.
USDJPY UP +13.29% VS S&P 500 -12.76%
The S&P 500 peaked on January 5, 2022, and after 3-months put in a lower top on March 29, 2022. In comparison, the US Dollar USD has gained steadily throughout 2022 as noted in the FX currency pairs USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD.
Interestingly we can see that as the USD is picking up steam to the upside simultaneously stocks are selling off. It appears that the money that is coming out of the equity markets is going into cash. But not just any cash but specifically into US dollars.
The global appetite for the US dollar and its subsequent rise can kill the stock market as US corporate profits dry up and everything the US consumer purchases in US dollars rise to levels that are no longer sustainable.
UNITED STATES DOLLAR • GLOBAL COMPARISON • OANDA • DAILY
GBPUSD LOST -36.30% 2007-08
During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the British Pound vs the US Dollar GBPUSD lost -36.30% in 14-months. Translation: the USD gained +36.30 against the GBP!
The current drop in the GBPUSD has been roughly -13.00% over the last 8-months.
Potentially the GBPUSD could move down another -20% over the next 6-months or longer if the downturn lasts for an extended period. Translation: the USD has the potential to gain an additional +20% against the GBP!
GBPUSD • BRITISH POUND VS US DOLLAR • FXCM • MONTHLY
AUDUSD LOST -39.20% 2007-08
During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the Australian Dollar vs the US Dollar AUDUSD lost -39.20% in just 4-months. Translation: the USD gained +39.20 against the AUD!
The current drop in the AUDUSD has been roughly -8.42% over the last 1-month.
Potentially the AUDUSD could move down another -30% over the next 3-months or longer if the downturn lasts for an extended period. Translation: the USD has the potential to gain an additional +30% against the AUD!
AUDUSD • AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR • FXCM • MONTHLY
DISCOVER HOW TO MANAGE DRAWDOWNS
Drawdowns are critical as the larger the loss the more difficult it is to make up. A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover, however, a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover, and a 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply return to break even.
Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown. A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks or a few months while a 50% drawdown may take several years to recover. Depending on a trader’s age they may not have the time to wait on the recovery nor the patience. Therefore, successful traders know it’s critical to keep their drawdowns within reason as most of them learned this principle the hard way!
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE THE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Author: Chris Vermeulen